Bottom line: Franchise quarterbacks hard to come by

Scarcely half (35) of the 67 first-round QBs drafted since 1980 who have been pros long enough to do so, have played five or more seasons with the team that initially drafted them. Only six of those 35 – Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, Troy Aikman, Steve McNair, Peyton Manning and Donovan Nabb – lasted 10 or more seasons with their respective squads.
Of the overall 78, only 28 (or 36 percent) own career winning records as starters. Of the 41 QBs picked in the top 10 since 1980, only 15 have career starting marks above .500.
Among the 72 first-round QBs drafted from '80 through 2009, only 27 have posted more than 25 career wins with five (Kelly, Marino, Aikman, Peyton Manning and McNabb) accumulating more than 100.
Twenty-four (or a full third) of the 72 first-round QBs drafted from 1980 through 2009 have nine or fewer career wins with their teams. Included in that forgettable group are no fewer than 12 top-10 picks, a list that includes Rich Campbell (a 1982 sixth-overall selection by the Packers), Andre Ware (1990 No. 7 overall, Lions), Heath Shuler (1994 No. 3 overall, Redskins), Ryan Leaf (1998 No. 2 overall, Chargers) and Akili Smith (1999 No. 3 overall, Bengals).
That’s one club Colts and Skins fans hope their new Sunday idols, Andrew Luck and RGIII, can do without.

Ultimate prizes

Conference crowns
Only 13 of the 78 QBs drafted in the first round sonce 1980 have gone on to guide their respective drafting teams to a conference title/Super Bowl berth. Two (Dan Marino and Ben Roethlisberger) managed to do it their second seasons.
Of the 41 top-10 drafted QBs in that span, only six have reached the Super Bowl with their original squads. That list begins with Jim McMahon, a 1982 draftee who was at the helm for the 1985 world-champion Bears, and continues through Eli Manning, who has guided the Giants to a pair of NFC titles and subsequent Super Bowl wins in the past five seasons. The others are the Cowboys’ Troy Aikman, the Patriots’ Drew Bledsoe, the Oilers’/Titans’ Steve McNair and the Eagles’ Donovan McNabb.
 
Super Bowl titles
Joining McMahon and Manning as first-round drafted QBs in the past 32 years who wound up hoisting the Lombardi Trophy with their original teams are Roethlisberger (twice), Aikman (three) the Colts’ Peyton Manning and the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers (one ring apiece).
That, football fans, leaves a full 92 percent of the first-round drafted quarterbacks from the past 32 years who have fallen short of the NFL’s ultimate prize.

Money time

Playoff berths
Six first-round rookie signal-callers – Dan Marino, Bernie Kosar (’85 Browns), Ben , Ryan, Flacco and Mark Sanchez – paid immediate dividends, guiding their teams into the playoffs in their inaugural seasons while starting at least half of their squad’s games.
Nine other quarterbacks reached the playoffs in their second seasons as majority starters, and 18 others followed in either their third or fourth seasons.
Five more took five seasons or longer to gain the postseason, but a full 40 never did or never have (including 21 of the 41 top-10 selections from 1980 through 2011), meaning a slight majority never did – or have yet to – guide their teams past the final game of the regular season.
 
Postseason wins
Winnowing things down even further, only 25 (or slightly less than a third) of the 78 QBs drafted in the first round since 1980 have led their original teams to a playoff victory. Twelve of those 25 were top-10 draft picks, meaning a full 29 top-10 resumes don’t include a postseason win.
Roethlisberger, Flacco and Sanchez are the only three of the 25 to quarterback their teams to playoff wins in their rookie seasons, surprisingly leaving Sanchez as the lone top-10 drafted QB to accomplish the rookie-year feat since 1980.

Immediate impact?

Rookie campaigns
Of the 78 QBs drafted in the first round from 1980 through 2011, 19 never saw action in their rookie seasons for their respective teams. Twenty-two started five games or fewer in their inaugural seasons, while another 22 logged as many as 10 starts.
Seven of the latter 22 started all 16 games for their teams. That list begins with Rick Mirer with the 1993 Seahawks and also includes Peyton Manning (’98 Colts), David Carr (’02 expansion Texans), Matt Ryan (’08 Falcons), Joe Flacco (’08 Ravens), Sam Bradford (’10 Rams) and Cam Newton (’11 Panthers). All aside from Mirer were first-overall selections.

Winning seasons
The list of first-round quarterbacks who guided their clubs to winning seasons while starting half or more of their respective team’s games during their rookie seasons is comprised of a select five: Marino (’83 Dolphins), Ben Roethlisberger (’04 Steelers), Ryan, Flacco and Mark Sanchez of the ’09 Jets.
Thirteen others accomplished the feat in their second seasons, 10 more followed suit in their third campaigns and 12 more took four or more seasons to quarterback their clubs above .500.
That, however, leaves 38 – or nearly half of the 78 QBs – who never have managed to produce even one winning campaign for the teams that drafted them. Moreover, 16 of those 38 were top-10 selections in drafts held prior to 2010 – a ignominious group that includes the likes of Art Schlicter (’82 Colts), David Klingler (’92 Bengals) and JaMarcus Russell (’07 Raiders).

Drafting QBs in first round a crapshoot

Possibly the only thing generating more buzz than Andrew Luck’s rookie-season prospects with the Colts is Robert Griffin III’s first-year outlook with the Redskins.
Months before either QB takes a snap that counts, visions of playoff wins and confetti-littered celebrations are dancing in fans’ heads in Indy and D.C.
And then there’s the general giddiness in Miami and Cleveland. To be clear, there are no Luck- or RGIII-like expectations surrounding the first-round selections of Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden, but there’s a definite spring in the steps of Browns and Dolphins fans this summer as training camp nears.
Still, slicing through the hype, hullabaloo and hoopla, there is real cause for concern. When it comes to first-round rookie quarterbacks, there are equal parts miss and hit, as much flop as fame and as many busts as blue-chippers.
And cutting even deeper into the chase of the NFL’s holy grails – playoff wins and Lombardi Trophies – QBs who deliver for the franchises that invested first-round picks in them truly are rare commodities.
In other words, Luck could very easily be the Colts’ next Jeff George instead of Peyton Manning. And try as they might, Skins backers won’t easily escape the nearly two decade-old specter of Heath Shuler lurking in RGIII’s shadow.
Separating the QB gold from the iron pyrite in the first round is tricky business, even for the 49ers who only 15 seasons ago were pinning their post-Joe Montana and Steve Young hopes on Jim Drukenmiller.
For those still shoulder-pad deep in the rookie hype, bear with us as we crunch the numbers compiled by QBs from the past 32 years of drafts – regular and supplemental – and judge for yourself whether the first round produces more Dan Marinos or Dan McGwires.
In all, 78 quarterbacks were selected in the first-round of the regular and supplemental drafts ranging from 1980 to 2011. For the purposes of this analysis, we measured the productiveness of QBs with the franchises that initially drafted them. So while John Elway went on to Hall of Fame greatness, it never really paid dividends for the Colts, who selected the Stanford stud with the first overall pick in 1983. The same applies to QBs such as Jim Everett and Kelly Stouffer who never took snaps with the teams (the Oilers and Cardinals, respectively) who originally drafted them.
To differentiate, Eli Manning is treated as a true Giant and Philip Rivers as a career Charger since those teams agreed to select the QBs with a draft-day swap in the works.
Breakdowns to follow in upcoming posts ...