Pre-Super Bowl housecleaning

Sweeping up a few items of note in the first week of a 2-week NFL-less lull:

• With the fourth-seeded Ravens making it to New Orleans, it'll make six Super Bowls in the past eight to feature a fourth, fifth or sixth seed. Before this current run, only four fourth-or-lower seeds made it to the Roman Numeral Game in the previous 15 seasons.
• On the subject of seeds, it'll now be only twice in the past 13 seasons that a No. 1 seed has hoisted the Lombardi Trophy with the 2009 Saints and '03 Patriots doing the honors. For comparison, seven No. 1 seeds won it all in the 10 previous seasons before this current 13-year drought.
• With the 13-3 Broncos or Falcons failing to make it to New Orleans, the team(s) with the best regular-season record has now only won the Super Bowl twice (the '03 Pats and '02 Bucs) in the past 16 seasons. In the 27 seasons prior to that -- dating back to the 1970 merger -- the team with the top winning percentage went on to win it all a full 18 times.
• Another odd trend will continue as this year's Super Bowl winner will have posted a better regular-season record the previous year. To wit, the Niners went from 13-3 in 2011 to 12-4 in 2012, while the Ravens also dipped a game from 12-4 to 11-5. This will make five seasons in the past eight that this applies to the NFL champ.
• The 2012 Patriots became the 26th league scoring leader to fail to qualify for the Big Game. That means 21 have made it, with 10 winning it all -- the last being the '09 Saints.
• Conversely, 18 teams who allowed the fewest points in that year's regular season have had Super seasons, with 13 of them winning it all. The 2010 Steelers were the last top scoring defense to qualify, while the '08 Steelers were the last ones to dance under the confetti.
• Adrian Peterson won't be toting the rock in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, meaning only five regular-season rushing leaders have gone on to play in that season's Super Bowl. And that list only includes three names total: The Seahawks' Shaun Alexander ('05), the Broncos' Terrell Davis ('98), and the Cowboys' Emmitt Smith ('95, '93 and '92).
• Meanwhile, the league's leading passers (according to rating) definitely have had more success with 15 top-ranked QBs making it to the Big Game and eight of them winning it all. The last one was the Saints' Drew Brees in 2009.

Experience key with NFL No. 1 seeds

Following up on the post earlier this week, we're looking into what differentiates the haves from the have-nots when it comes to No. 1 NFL playoff seeds.
And what's immediately jumped out is experience.
Since the league expanded to a 12-team postseason field in 1990, 14 AFC and NFC No. 1 seeds have lost their first playoff game -- i.e. falling on their home field in the divisional round -- with the latest victims being the 2012 Broncos.
Eleven of those 14 squads were in the playoffs in either or both of the previous two seasons and six won a playoff game.
Nothing really unexpected there.
However -- and this is where things get telling -- only two of the 14 (the 1997 Chiefs and 2010 Patriots) had been a No. 1 or 2 seed with a wild-card round bye over the previous three seasons, meaning, for the most part, these were No. 1 seeds largely unaccustomed to the pressures and perils of their lofty perches.
Contrast that with 21 No. 1 seeds who aced both of their postseason conference tests and went on to play in the Super Bowl. A full 18 of those 21 teams had participated in the playoffs in either or both of the previous two seasons and 14 had posted a playoff win.
But -- and, again, here's the important part -- 16 of the 21 squads had previous experience as a No. 1 or 2 seed at a point in the preceding three seasons and knew what to expect when it came to dealing with the pressure, playing as a favorite (typically) off a week of rest and not looking past any opponent.
Nine of those 16 No. 1s went on to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, including a trio of 1-vs.-1 matchups.

Broncos can't buck AFC top seed woes

When the top-seeded Denver Broncos lost Saturday in the divisional round, it wasn't the shocking development many made it out to be.
Actually, when it comes to recent AFC playoff history, the loss fell in line with the rule as much as it was an exception.
Check out these cold hard facts pertaining to AFC No. 1 seeds in the 22 completed seasons (through 2011) since the NFL expanded to a 12-team postseason field in 1990:

• Nine of those 22 top seeds were one-and-done in the divisional round, losing their first playoff game, getting no edge from the bye week or homefield advantage whatsoever.
• Of the 13 remaining squads, nine advanced to the Super Bowl while four saw their seasons end in the conference championship games. 
• Of those nine AFC top seeds to reach the Super Bowl since 1990, only two -- the '98 Broncos and '03 Patriots -- went on to win it all. To be clear, that's two teams in 22 seasons -- or one every 11 years.
• By comparison over that same span, as many or more NFC No. 1 seeds (7), AFC No. 2 seeds (3), NFC No. 2 seeds (3) and AFC No. 4s (2) have hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.
• The list of AFC powerhouses that weren't includes seven squads that finished 14-2 or better in the regular season -- including the 16-0 Pats of 2007 and the 15-1 Steelers of  '04 -- and 10 13-3 teams, now with the inclusion of the '12 Broncos. 
• Overall, the No. 1 seeds in the AFC have compiled a rather pedestrian 24-21 postseason record since 1990 -- breaking down to a 13-10 mark in the divisional round, 9-4 in conference championships and 2-7 in the Super Bowl.
• And, finally, with the Broncos' loss, more AFC No. 1 seeds (10) have lost their first playoff game than have gone on to the Super Bowl (9) since 1990. By comparison, only four NFC No. 1s have fallen in the divisional round -- with the Atlanta Falcons just escaping being No. 5 on Sunday -- while a dozen have gone on to play in the Roman Numeral Game.

To summarize this two decade-plus run of futility, we'll leave you with this: The top-seeded AFC playoff team has been five times more likely to lose its first playoff game than win the Super Bowl.

Postseason nuggets (ATS flavor)

Switching gears as we cross over into the pointspread lane, here are some ATS nuggets, also all gleaned from the 2002-11 postseasons (or since the NFL adopted it's current 32-team, eight-division format):

• No. 3 seeds have fared the best against the spread in the past 10 postseasons at 21-16 (including the Super Bowl), while No. 1 seeds are a dismal 15-26. In between are No. 2s (17-19),  No. 4s (19-18) and No. 6s (20-16).
• Home teams are a combined 45-55 ATS, going 18-22 in the wild-card round, 17-23 in divisional-round play and 10-10 in conference championships.
• Favorites, meanwhile, have gone a combined 50-60 ATS overall, including a 3-7 mark in the Super Bowl and a 16-24 showing in the divisional round. Wild-card favorites have gone 20-20, but the only round in which favored teams are above .500 is the conference championships at 11-9.
• 2004, '05, '08 and '10 have represented the high-water marks for favorites -- seasons all with 6-5 overall marks -- while 2007 stands out as the year of the underdog with a full eight of the 11 postseason games qualifying as upsets.
• There have been 42 teams favored by 7 points or more, but those squads have gone a combined 18-24 ATS, including 13 straight-up losers.
• The divisional round (8-12) and Super Bowl (1-3) have been the harshest for those TD-plus favorites, while they've broken even in the wild-card round (6-6) and conference championships (3-3).
• 11 of those 42 aforementioned teams were double-digit favorites, and they've gone 5-6 ATS, including four outright losers.

Serving up some postseason nuggets

Trying to pick some divisional-round winners?
Wanna know if your favorite team has a chance to advance?
Looking ahead to Feb. 3 and putting a little somethin' something down on a Super Bowl champ?
Before going out on any limbs, first digest these nuggets, all gleaned from the 2002-11 postseasons (or since the NFL adopted its current 32-team, eight-division format):

• No. 1 and No .2 seeds (i.e. the home teams coming off a bye) are a combined 25-15 in the divisional round, but are only 15-13 since 2005.
• Speaking of the 2005-and-later era, No. 1 seeds have combined to win only Super Bowl during that span while bowing out in the divisional round a full eight times.
• 2004 has the last season all four No. 1 and No. 2 seeds made it to the conference championship games.
• 2009 has been the only season when both conference No. 1 seeds squared off in the Super Bowl.
• As many No. 6 seeds (the '05 Steelers and '10 Packers) have carted off the Lombardi Trophy as No. 1 seeds (the '03 Patriots and '09 Saints).
• Overall, No. 6 seeds have gone a combined 18-18 in the playoffs -- better than all but No. 1s (23-18) and No. 2s (20-17). The others -- No. 3s (18-19), No. 4s (18-19) and No. 5s (13-19).
• As the playoffs go on, homefield advantage becomes much more of a factor as home teams are 21-19 (.525) in the wild-card round, 25-15 (.625) in the divisional round and 13-7 (.650) in conference championship contests.
• Home teams (i.e. the higher seeds) have swept all five games twice in both the AFC (2002 and 2011) and NFC (2006 and 2009) but it's never happened in both conferences during the same season. (And, of course, it didn't happen again this year with the Seahawks winning the wild-card matchup against the host Redskins on Jan. 6).