Drafting QBs in first round a crapshoot

Possibly the only thing generating more buzz than Andrew Luck’s rookie-season prospects with the Colts is Robert Griffin III’s first-year outlook with the Redskins.
Months before either QB takes a snap that counts, visions of playoff wins and confetti-littered celebrations are dancing in fans’ heads in Indy and D.C.
And then there’s the general giddiness in Miami and Cleveland. To be clear, there are no Luck- or RGIII-like expectations surrounding the first-round selections of Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden, but there’s a definite spring in the steps of Browns and Dolphins fans this summer as training camp nears.
Still, slicing through the hype, hullabaloo and hoopla, there is real cause for concern. When it comes to first-round rookie quarterbacks, there are equal parts miss and hit, as much flop as fame and as many busts as blue-chippers.
And cutting even deeper into the chase of the NFL’s holy grails – playoff wins and Lombardi Trophies – QBs who deliver for the franchises that invested first-round picks in them truly are rare commodities.
In other words, Luck could very easily be the Colts’ next Jeff George instead of Peyton Manning. And try as they might, Skins backers won’t easily escape the nearly two decade-old specter of Heath Shuler lurking in RGIII’s shadow.
Separating the QB gold from the iron pyrite in the first round is tricky business, even for the 49ers who only 15 seasons ago were pinning their post-Joe Montana and Steve Young hopes on Jim Drukenmiller.
For those still shoulder-pad deep in the rookie hype, bear with us as we crunch the numbers compiled by QBs from the past 32 years of drafts – regular and supplemental – and judge for yourself whether the first round produces more Dan Marinos or Dan McGwires.
In all, 78 quarterbacks were selected in the first-round of the regular and supplemental drafts ranging from 1980 to 2011. For the purposes of this analysis, we measured the productiveness of QBs with the franchises that initially drafted them. So while John Elway went on to Hall of Fame greatness, it never really paid dividends for the Colts, who selected the Stanford stud with the first overall pick in 1983. The same applies to QBs such as Jim Everett and Kelly Stouffer who never took snaps with the teams (the Oilers and Cardinals, respectively) who originally drafted them.
To differentiate, Eli Manning is treated as a true Giant and Philip Rivers as a career Charger since those teams agreed to select the QBs with a draft-day swap in the works.
Breakdowns to follow in upcoming posts ...