Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Broncos can't buck AFC top seed woes

When the top-seeded Denver Broncos lost Saturday in the divisional round, it wasn't the shocking development many made it out to be.
Actually, when it comes to recent AFC playoff history, the loss fell in line with the rule as much as it was an exception.
Check out these cold hard facts pertaining to AFC No. 1 seeds in the 22 completed seasons (through 2011) since the NFL expanded to a 12-team postseason field in 1990:

  • Nine of those 22 top seeds were one-and-done in the divisional round, losing their first playoff game, getting no edge from the bye week or homefield advantage whatsoever.
  • Of the 13 remaining squads, nine advanced to the Super Bowl while four saw their seasons end in the conference championship games. 
  • Of those nine AFC top seeds to reach the Super Bowl since 1990, only two -- the '98 Broncos and '03 Patriots -- went on to win it all. To be clear, that's two teams in 22 seasons -- or one every 11 years.
  • By comparison over that same span, as many or more NFC No. 1 seeds (7), AFC No. 2 seeds (3), NFC No. 2 seeds (3) and AFC No. 4s (2) have hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.
  • The list of AFC powerhouses that weren't includes seven squads that finished 14-2 or better in the regular season -- including the 16-0 Pats of 2007 and the 15-1 Steelers of  '04 -- and 10 13-3 teams, now with the inclusion of the '12 Broncos. 
  • Overall, the No. 1 seeds in the AFC have compiled a rather pedestrian 24-21 postseason record since 1990 -- breaking down to a 13-10 mark in the divisional round, 9-4 in conference championships and 2-7 in the Super Bowl.
  • And, finally, with the Broncos' loss, more AFC No. 1 seeds (10) have lost their first playoff game than have gone on to the Super Bowl (9) since 1990. By comparison, only four NFC No. 1s have fallen in the divisional round -- with the Atlanta Falcons just escaping being No. 5 on Sunday -- while a dozen have gone on to play in the Roman Numeral Game.
To summarize this two decade-plus run of futility, we'll leave you with this: The top-seeded AFC playoff team has been five times more likely to lose its first playoff game than win the Super Bowl.

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