Friday, January 11, 2013

Postseason nuggets (ATS flavor)


Switching gears as we cross over into the pointspread lane, here are some ATS nuggets, also all gleaned from the 2002-11 postseasons (or since the NFL adopted it's current 32-team, eight-division format):

  • No. 3 seeds have fared the best against the spread in the past 10 postseasons at 21-16 (including the Super Bowl), while No. 1 seeds are a dismal 15-26. In between are No. 2s (17-19),  No. 4s (19-18) and No. 6s (20-16).
  • Home teams are a combined 45-55 ATS, going 18-22 in the wild-card round, 17-23 in divisional-round play and 10-10 in conference championships.
  • Favorites, meanwhile, have gone a combined 50-60 ATS overall, including a 3-7 mark in the Super Bowl and a 16-24 showing in the divisional round. Wild-card favorites have gone 20-20, but the only round in which favored teams are above .500 is the conference championships at 11-9.
  • 2004, '05, '08 and '10 have represented the high-water marks for favorites -- seasons all with 6-5 overall marks -- while 2007 stands out as the year of the underdog with a full eight of the 11 postseason games qualifying as upsets.
  • There have been 42 teams favored by 7 points or more, but those squads have gone a combined 18-24 ATS, including 13 straight-up losers.
  • The divisional round (8-12) and Super Bowl (1-3) have been the harshest for those TD-plus favorites, while they've broken even in the wild-card round (6-6) and conference championships (3-3).
  • 11 of those 42 aforementioned teams were double-digit favorites, and they've gone 5-6 ATS, including four outright losers.



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